Geopolitical turmoil and energy dynamics: Analyzing the impact on inflation in selected European economies.

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Tác giả: Cumali Marangoz

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 910.46809 Accounts of travel and facilities for travelers

Thông tin xuất bản: England : Heliyon , 2025

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: NCBI

ID: 238476

This paper attempts to examine the impact of energy price shocks, monetary policy, and geopolitical events on inflation in selected European countries across different periods of time by applying a Time-Varying Parameter Vector Autoregressive (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility. The analysis displays the diverse impact of gas prices on the Consumer Price Index (CPI), a gauge for inflation, in the short, medium, and long term. Moreover, the findings show that oil price shocks with deflationary trends during COVID-19 have inflationary consequences. The results also show that the European Central Bank's response to the pandemic-induced economic downturn has affected long-term inflation trends. Furthermore, significant geopolitical risks that arose from the Russia-Ukraine war amplified inflationary trends. The findings contribute valuable insights into the multifaceted dynamics shaping inflation in European economies.
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