Phân tích các nhân tố tác động đến kim ngạch xuất khẩu gạo của Việt Nam=Analysis of factors affecting Vietnam's rice export rate

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Tác giả: Cảnh Dũng Lê, Hoàng Tính Nguyễn

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Khoa học (Đại học Cần Thơ), 2024

Mô tả vật lý: tr.224-234

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 244379

Thêm vào giỏ

Nghiên cứu này nhằm phân tích các nhân tố tác động đến kim ngạch xuất khẩu gạo của Việt Nam giai đoạn 2011-2021. Nghiên cứu sử dụng mô hình hấp dẫn thương mại với dữ liệu bảng của 45 quốc gia và vùng lãnh thổ nhập khẩu gạo theo phương pháp ước lượng bình phương bé nhất (OLS), mô hình ảnh hưởng cố định (FEM) và mô hình ảnh hưởng ngẫu nhiên (REM). Kết quả ước lượng cho thấy giá gạo xuất khẩu thế giới, dân số nước nhập khẩu, thành viên Hiệp định Ðối tác Toàn diện và Tiến bộ Xuyên Thái Bình Dương (CPTPP), Việt Nam và quốc gia đối tác có mối quan hệ đa phương hoặc song phương có tác động tích cực, trong khi đó tổng giá trị sản phẩm quốc nội (GDP) của nước nhập khẩu, sản lượng lương thực tự sản xuất của nước nhập khẩu, lạm phát của Việt Nam có tác động tiêu cực đến kim ngạch xuất khẩu gạo của Việt Nam. Từ đó, đề xuất một số hàm ý chính sách để gia tăng kim ngạch xuất khẩu gạo của Việt Nam thời gian tới.This study aimed at analyzing the factors affecting Vietnam's rice export value in the period of 2011-2021. The study employed the gravity model with panel data from 45 rice-imported countries and territories. The estimating methods of Ordinary Least Square (OLS), Fixed Effect Model (FEM), and Random Effect Model (REM) were applied for the model validation. The results showed the factors that have positively impacted exported value were the world export price of rice, the population of imported countries, Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) members, and membership of multilateral or bilateral relationships between Vietnam and imported partners. However, the gross domestic product (GDP) of the importing country, the self-produced food output of the importing country, and Vietnam's inflation rate have negatively impacted rice export value. Based on the estimated results of the models and the current situation of Vietnam's exports, several policy implications for increasing Vietnam's rice export value in the coming time were proposed.

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