METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT DEVELOPMENTS IN THAI BINH PROVINCE IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE=METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT DEVELOPMENTS IN THAI BINH PROVINCE IN THE CONTEXT OF CLIMATE CHANGE

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Tác giả: Thi Thu Hien Nguyen, Thi Hang Vu

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khoa học - Trường Đại học Sư phạm Hà Nội: Khoa học Tự nhiên, 2024

Mô tả vật lý: tr.185

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 246696

This article presents the frequency and trends of meteorological droughtin Thai Binh province for the period 1991-2021 and forecasts drought trends for theperiod 2025-2065 based on climate change scenarios. The PED drought index iscalculated using the corresponding daily temperature and rainfall data for each ofthese periods. The results indicate that meteorological drought in Thai Binh canoccur in both the dry and rainy seasons. During the period from 1991 to 2021,medium drought occurred in the dry season nearly once every ten years. Droughtoccurrences in both the rainy and dry seasons show an increasing trend in intensityand the number of drought months. In the future, during the period from 2025 to2065, dry season drought will fluctuate less under the RCP4.5 scenario but willsharply increase in frequency and intensity under the RCP8.5 scenario. In the rainyseason, drought is projected to increase in both scenarios. The number of droughtmonths is relatively high and will rise significantly in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5scenarios. A notable aspect of this study is the analysis of meteorological droughttrends for the period 2025-2065, based on climate change scenarios.This article presents the frequency and trends of meteorological droughtin Thai Binh province for the period 1991-2021 and forecasts drought trends for theperiod 2025-2065 based on climate change scenarios. The PED drought index iscalculated using the corresponding daily temperature and rainfall data for each ofthese periods. The results indicate that meteorological drought in Thai Binh canoccur in both the dry and rainy seasons. During the period from 1991 to 2021,medium drought occurred in the dry season nearly once every ten years. Droughtoccurrences in both the rainy and dry seasons show an increasing trend in intensityand the number of drought months. In the future, during the period from 2025 to2065, dry season drought will fluctuate less under the RCP4.5 scenario but willsharply increase in frequency and intensity under the RCP8.5 scenario. In the rainyseason, drought is projected to increase in both scenarios. The number of droughtmonths is relatively high and will rise significantly in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5scenarios. A notable aspect of this study is the analysis of meteorological droughttrends for the period 2025-2065, based on climate change scenarios.
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