Các hàm phân cấp nguy cơ cháy rừng tại khu vực Bảo Lâm thuộc tỉnh Lâm Đồng=Forest fire risk hierarchy functions in Bao Lam area of Lam Dong province

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Tác giả: Hồng Việt Lê, Văn Quý Nguyễn, Văn Thêm Nguyễn

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Khoa học và Công nghệ Lâm nghiệp, 2024

Mô tả vật lý: tr.67-74

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 253108

Thêm vào giỏ

Phân cấp nguy cơ cháy rừng là nhiệm vụ quan trọng trong quản lý lửa rừng. Bài báo này giới thiệu kết quả nghiên cứu về phân cấp nguy cơ cháy rừng ở khu vực Bảo Lâm bằng các hàm lập nhóm tuyến tính. Mục tiêu nghiên cứu là xây dựng các hàm phân chia các cấp nguy cơ cháy dựa theo một số yếu tố thời tiết bình quân ngày. Số liệu nghiên cứu là điều kiện thời tiết của 911 ngày trong mùa khô từ tháng 12 năm trước đến tháng 5 năm sau. Kết quả nghiên cứu đã chỉ ra rằng mùa khô ở khu vực Bảo Lâm kéo dài 6 tháng từ tháng 12 năm trước đến tháng 5 năm sau. Các cấp nguy cơ cháy rừng ở khu vực Bảo Lâm có thể được dự báo theo 5 hàm (FJ(1) = -0,003×TJ + 1,433×WS + 0,017×P - 4,423
FJ(2) = 0,035×TJ + 1,487×WS + 0,001×P - 4,907
FJ(3) = 0,144×TJ + 1,468×WS + 0,001×P - 23,212
FJ(4) = 0,273×TJ + 0,903×WS + 0,001×P - 71,021
FJ(5) = 0,426×TJ + 1,464×WS + 0,001×P - 170,52)
trong đó TJ là lũy tích nhiệt độ không khí bình quân ngày, P là tổng lượng mưa ngày và WS là tốc độ gió bình quân ngày. Các hàm lập nhóm đã phân loại các ngày trong mùa khô vào 5 cấp nguy cơ cháy rừng với độ chính xác 98,9%. Ở khu vực Bảo Lâm, nguy cơ cháy rừng ở mức lớn đến cực kỳ nguy hiểm xảy ra từ giữa tháng 12 năm trước đến tháng 2 năm sau. Nguy cơ cháy rừng từ tháng 3 đến tháng 5 chỉ ở các cấp I và II.Ranking forest fire risk levels is an important task in forest fire management. This paper presents the results of a study on forest fire risk rank in Bao Lam area using a linear clustering functions. The research objective was to build fire risk hierarchy functions based on average daily weather factors. The research data were the weather conditions of 911 days in the dry season from December of the previous year to May of the following year. The data were collected in 2015 to 2019. The forest fire risk levels were classified according to a linear clustering function with three predictor variables: cumulative daily average air temperature, total daily rainfall, and daily mean wind speed. The research results showed that the dry season in Bao Lam area lasts 6 months from December of the previous year to May of the following year. Forest fire risk levels in Bao Lam area can be predicted by 5 linear clustering functions (FJ(1) = -0.003×TJ + 1.433×WS + 0.017×P – 4.423
FJ(2) = 0.035×TJ + 1.487×WS + 0.001×P – 4.907
FJ(3) = 0.144×TJ + 1.468×WS + 0.001×P – 23.212
FJ(4) = 0.273×TJ + 0.903×WS + 0.001×P – 71.021
FJ(5) = 0.426×TJ + 1.464×WS + 0.001×P – 170.52)
where TJ was the cumulative daily average air temperature, P was the total daily rainfall, and WS was the daily average wind speed. The clustering functions classified dry season days into five forest fire risk levels with 98.9% accuracy. In Bao Lam area, forest fire risks ranging from major to extremely dangerous occurred from mid-December of the previous year to February of the following year. The risk of forest fires from March to May was only at levels I and II.

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