Characterizing Time Series Data Diversity for Wind Forecasting [electronic resource] : Preprint

• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 621.45 Wind engines
• Thông tin xuất bản: Washington, D.C. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2018
• Mô tả vật lý: Size: 1.7 MB : , digital, PDF file.
• Bộ sưu tập: Metadata
• ID: 258140
• Chủ đề: 1. 17 wind energy; 2. Big data visualization; 3. Data diversity; 4. Time series analysis; 5. Wind forecasting

Tóm tắt

Wind forecasting plays an important role in integrating variable and uncertain wind power into the power grid. Various forecasting models have been developed to improve the forecasting accuracy. However, it is challenging to accurately compare the true forecasting performances from different methods and forecasters due to the lack of diversity in forecasting test datasets. This paper proposes a time series characteristic analysis approach to visualize and quantify wind time series diversity. The developed method first calculates six time series characteristic indices from various perspectives. Then the principal component analysis is performed to reduce the data dimension while preserving the important information. The diversity of the time series dataset is visualized by the geometric distribution of the newly constructed principal component space. The volume of the 3-dimensional (3D) convex polytope (or the length of 1D number axis, or the area of the 2D convex polygon) is used to quantify the time series data diversity. The method is tested with five datasets with various degrees of diversity.