Analysis and Synthesis of Load Forecasting Data for Renewable Integration Studies [electronic resource] : Preprint

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Tác giả:

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 621.312 Generation, modification, storage

Thông tin xuất bản: Golden, Colo. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : National Renewable Energy Laboratory (U.S.) ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2013

Mô tả vật lý: Size: 8 pp. : , digital, PDF file.

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 258840

As renewable energy constitutes greater portions of the generation fleet, the importance of modeling uncertainty as part of integration studies also increases. In pursuit of optimal system operations, it is important to capture not only the definitive behavior of power plants, but also the risks associated with systemwide interactions. This research examines the dependence of load forecast errors on external predictor variables such as temperature, day type, and time of day. The analysis was utilized to create statistically relevant instances of sequential load forecasts with only a time series of historic, measured load available. The creation of such load forecasts relies on Bayesian techniques for informing and updating the model, thus providing a basis for networked and adaptive load forecast models in future operational applications.
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