Distribution of Wind Power Forecast Errors from Operational Systems [electronic resource]

• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 333.9 Other natural resources
• Thông tin xuất bản: Washington, D.C. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2011
• Mô tả vật lý: Size: 814 KB : , digital, PDF file.
• Bộ sưu tập: Metadata
• ID: 259436
• Chủ đề: 1. 17 wind energy; 2. Distribution; 3. Errors; 4. Forecasting; 5. Power systems

Tóm tắt

Wind power forecasting is one important tool in the integration of large amounts of renewable generation into the electricity system. Wind power forecasts from operational systems are not perfect, and thus, an understanding of the forecast error distributions can be important in system operations. In this work, we examine the errors from operational wind power forecasting systems, both for asingle wind plant and for an entire interconnection. The resulting error distributions are compared with the normal distribution and the distribution obtained from the persistence forecasting model at multiple timescales. A model distribution is fit to the operational system forecast errors and the potential impact on system operations highlighted through the generation of forecast confidenceintervals.