High Contagiousness and Rapid Spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 [electronic resource]

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Tác giả:

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 577.2 Specific factors affecting ecology

Thông tin xuất bản: Los Alamos, N.M. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Los Alamos National Laboratory ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2020

Mô tả vật lý: Size: p. 1470-1477 : , digital, PDF file.

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 259857

 Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 is the causative agent of the ongoing coronavirus disease pandemic. Initial estimates of the early dynamics of the outbreak in Wuhan, China, suggested a doubling time of the number of infected persons of 6?7 days and a basic reproductive number (R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
 ) of 2.2?2.7. We collected extensive individual case reports across China and estimated key epidemiologic parameters, including the incubation period (4.2 days). We then designed 2 mathematical modeling approaches to infer the outbreak dynamics in Wuhan by using high-resolution domestic travel and infection data. Results show that the doubling time early in the epidemic in Wuhan was 2.3?3.3 days. Assuming a serial interval of 6?9 days, we calculated a median R0 value of 5.7 (95% CI 3.8?8.9). Here, we further show that active surveillance, contact tracing, quarantine, and early strong social distancing efforts are needed to stop transmission of the virus.
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