Reply to Bracher [electronic resource] : Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability

• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 630.9 Agriculture and related technologies
• Thông tin xuất bản: Washington, D.C. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : United States. National Nuclear Security Administration ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2019
• Mô tả vật lý: Size: p. 20811-20812 : , digital, PDF file.
• Bộ sưu tập: Metadata
• ID: 260023
• Chủ đề: 1. 60 applied life sciences; 2. Biological science; 3. Mathematics

Tóm tắt

Evaluating probabilistic forecasts in the context of a real-time public health surveillance system is a complicated business. We agree with Bracher?s (1) observations that the scores established by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and used to evaluate our forecasts of seasonal influenza in the United States are not ?proper? by definition (2). We thank him for raising this important issue.