Quantitative impacts of incubation phase transmission of foot-and-mouth disease virus [electronic resource]

• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 616.9 Other diseases
• Thông tin xuất bản: Washington, D.C. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : United States. Dept. of Energy. Office of Science ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2019
• Mô tả vật lý: Size: Article No. 2707 : , digital, PDF file.
• Bộ sưu tập: Metadata
• ID: 260075
• Chủ đề: 1. 60 applied life sciences; 2. Science & technology - other topics

Tóm tắt

The current investigation applied a Bayesian modeling approach to a unique experimental transmission study to estimate the occurrence of transmission of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) during the incubation phase amongst group-housed pigs. The primary outcome was that transmission occurred approximately one day prior to development of visible signs of disease (posterior median 21hours, 95% CI: 1.1?45.0). Updated disease state durations were incorporated into a simulation model to examine the importance of addressing preclinical transmission in the face of robust response measures. Simulation of FMD outbreaks in the US pig production sector demonstrated that including a preclinical infectious period of one day would result in a 40% increase in the median number of farms afected (166 additional farms and 664,912 pigs euthanized) compared to the scenario of no preclinical transmission, assuming suboptimal outbreak response. These fndings emphasize the importance of considering transmission of FMD during the incubation phase in modeling and response planning.