An approach to and web-based tool for infectious disease outbreak intervention analysis [electronic resource]

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Tác giả:

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 614.5 Incidence of and public measures to prevent specific diseases and kinds of diseases

Thông tin xuất bản: Los Alamos, N.M. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Los Alamos National Laboratory ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2017

Mô tả vật lý: Size: 46076 : , digital, PDF file.

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 260529

Infectious diseases are a leading cause of death globally. Decisions surrounding how to control an infectious disease outbreak currently rely on a subjective process involving surveillance and expert opinion. However, there are many situations where neither may be available. Modeling can fill gaps in the decision making process by using available data to provide quantitative estimates of outbreak trajectories. Effective reduction of the spread of infectious diseases can be achieved through collaboration between the modeling community and public health policy community. However, such collaboration is rare, resulting in a lack of models that meet the needs of the public health community. Here we show a Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered (SIR) model modified to include control measures that allows parameter ranges, rather than parameter point estimates, and includes a web user interface for broad adoption. We apply the model to three diseases, measles, norovirus and influenza, to show the feasibility of its use and describe a research agenda to further promote interactions between decision makers and the modeling community.
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