Modeling Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) Disease Propagation and Control Strategies Using Memoryless State Transitions [electronic resource]

 0 Người đánh giá. Xếp hạng trung bình 0

Tác giả:

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 612.3 Digestion

Thông tin xuất bản: Washington, D.C. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : United States. National Nuclear Security Administration ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2017

Mô tả vật lý: Size: Article No. 90 : , digital, PDF file.

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 261933

Peste des Petits Ruminants (PPR) is an infectious disease affecting goats and sheep. PPR has a mortality rate of 80% and a morbidity rate of 100% in na�ve herds. This disease is currently of concern to Afghani goat and sheep herders as conditions in Afghanistan are conducive to the disease becoming an epidemic. PPR is similar to Rinderpest, but is not as well studied. There is a lack of empirical data on how the disease spreads or effective large-scale mitigation strategies. We developed a herd-level, event-driven model of PPR, using memoryless state transitions, to study how the virus propagates through a herd, and to identify effective control strategies for disparate herd configurations and environments. This model allows us to perform Sensitivity Analyses (SA) on environmental and disease parameters for which we do not have empirical data and to simulate the effectiveness of various control strategies. We find that reducing the amount of time from the identification of PPR in a herd to the vaccination of the herd will radically reduce the number of deaths that result from PPR. The goal of this model is to give policy makers a tool to develop effective containment strategies for managing outbreaks of PPR.
Tạo bộ sưu tập với mã QR

THƯ VIỆN - TRƯỜNG ĐẠI HỌC CÔNG NGHỆ TP.HCM

ĐT: (028) 71010608 | Email: tt.thuvien@hutech.edu.vn

Copyright @2024 THƯ VIỆN HUTECH