A generating function approach to HIV transmission with dynamic contact rates [electronic resource]

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Tác giả:

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 570.1 Philosophy and theory

Thông tin xuất bản: Los Alamos, N.M. : Oak Ridge, Tenn. : Los Alamos National Laboratory ; Distributed by the Office of Scientific and Technical Information, U.S. Dept. of Energy, 2014

Mô tả vật lý: Size: p. 121-135 : , digital, PDF file.

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 262149

 The basic reproduction number, R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
 , is often defined as the average number of infections generated by a newly infected individual in a fully susceptible population. The interpretation, meaning, and derivation of R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
  are controversial. However, in the context of mean field models, R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
  demarcates the epidemic threshold below which the infected population approaches zero in the limit of time. In this manner, R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
  has been proposed as a method for understanding the relative impact of public health interventions with respect to disease eliminations from a theoretical perspective. The use of R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
  is made more complex by both the strong dependency of R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
  on the model form and the stochastic nature of transmission. A common assumption in models of HIV transmission that have closed form expressions for R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
  is that a single individual?s behavior is constant over time. For this research, we derive expressions for both R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
  and probability of an epidemic in a finite population under the assumption that people periodically change their sexual behavior over time. We illustrate the use of generating functions as a general framework to model the effects of potentially complex assumptions on the number of transmissions generated by a newly infected person in a susceptible population. In conclusion, we find that the relationship between the probability of an epidemic and R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
  is not straightforward, but, that as the rate of change in sexual behavior increases both R<
 sub>
 0<
 /sub>
  and the probability of an epidemic also decrease.
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