The mechanism of ethanol upgrading to higher products is still under debate, especially regarding intermediate species and hydrogenation and dehydrogenation steps. In this work, we conducted a combined theoretical and experimental approach to contribute to this discussion. For such, detailed electronic structure density functional theory calculations (aiming at probing density of states, infrared spectra, geometric parameters, charge densities, and reaction energetics) and diffuse reflectance infrared Fourier transform spectroscopy experiments were carried out revealing the relevance of an appropriate combination of reactive surface sites to support the formation of several intermediates that are formed in the C-C coupling over MgO. The roles of Mg and O sites were also studied under an electronic perspective and different geometrical arrangements. We found that a kink configuration was the most adequate for ethanol to 1-butanol upgrading. Our calculations also gave us arguments to propose distinct reaction routes, whose mutual predominance would depend upon reaction temperature. At temperatures up to 573 K, the so-called ?-route, which goes through scission of a C?-H bond and formation of an oxametallacycle-like intermediate, would dominate the coupling, whereas at higher temperatures, up to 673 K, a more usual Guerbet mechanism, via an aldol coupling step and then consecutive hydrogenations, would be expected. Here, the theoretical conclusions were followed by a careful experimental strategy using sequential experimental planning techniques in order to estimate accurate parameters with the lowest possible experimental load. Information from these different sources were coupled to develop a mathematical model for the rate of the ethanol upgrading reaction, using a Langmuir-Hinshelwood-Hougen-Watson approach. The developed and statistically validated model adequately described the experimental data at 673 K and 1.1 bar total pressure for ethanol partial pressures in the range from 0 to 20 kPa.