Under a diverse set of programs, the Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Cell Technologies Offices of the U.S. Department of Energy?s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy invest in early-stage research of advanced batteries and electrification, engines and fuels, materials, and energy-efficient mobility systems
hydrogen production, delivery, and storage
and fuel cell technologies. This report documents the estimated benefits of successful development and implementation of advanced vehicle technologies. It presents a comparison of a scenario with completely successful implementation of Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO) technologies (the Program Success case) to a future in which there is no contribution after Fiscal Year 2017 by the VTO or FCTO to these technologies (the No Program case). Benefits were attributed to individual program technology areas, which included FCTO research and development and the VTO programs of electrification, advanced combustion engines and fuels, and materials technology. Projections for the Program Success case indicate that by 2035, the average fuel economy of on-road, light-duty vehicle stock could be 24% to 30% higher than in the No Program case, while fuel economy for on-road medium- and heavy-duty vehicle stock could be as much as 13% higher. The resulting petroleum savings in 2035 were estimated to be as high as 1.9 million barrels of oil per day, and reductions in greenhouse gas emissions were estimated to be as high as 320 million metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year. Projections of light-duty vehicle adoption indicate that although advanced-technology vehicles may be somewhat more expensive to purchase, the fuel savings result in a net reduction of consumer cost. In 2035, reductions in annual fuel expenditures for vehicles (both light- and heavy-duty) are projected to range from $86 billion to $109 billion (2015$), while the projected increase in new vehicle expenditures in the same year ranges from $6 billion to $24 billion (2015$).