Under a diverse set of programs, the Vehicle Technologies and Fuel Cell Technologies offices of DOE?s Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy invest in research, development, demonstration, and deployment of advanced vehicle, hydrogen production, delivery and storage, and fuel cell technologies. This report estimates the benefits of successfully developing and deploying these technologies (a ?Program Success? case) relative to a base case (the ?No Program? case). The Program Success case represents the future with completely successful deployment of Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (FCTO) technologies. The No Program case represents a future in which there is no contribution after FY 2016 by the VTO or FCTO to these technologies. The benefits of advanced vehicle, hydrogen production, delivery and storage, and fuel cell technologies were estimated on the basis of differences in fuel use, primary energy use, and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from light-, medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, including energy and emissions from fuel production, between the base case and the Program Success case. Improvements in fuel economy of various vehicle types, growth in the stock of fuel cell vehicles and other advanced technology vehicles, and decreased GHG intensity of hydrogen production and delivery in the Program Success case over the No Program case were projected to result in savings in petroleum use and GHG emissions. Benefits were disaggregated by individual program technology areas, which included the FCTO program and the VTO subprograms of batteries and electric drives
advanced combustion engines
fuels and lubricants
materials (for reduction in vehicle mass, or ?lightweighting?)
and, for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles, reduction in rolling and aerodynamic resistance. Projections for the Program Success case indicate that by 2035, the average fuel economy of on-road, light-duty vehicle stock could be 47% to 76% higher than in the No Program case. On-road medium- and heavy-duty vehicle stock could be as much as 39% higher. The resulting petroleum savings in 2035 were estimated to be as high as 3.1 million barrels per day, and reductions in GHG emissions were estimated to be as high as 500 million metric tons of CO2 equivalent per year. The benefits of continuing to invest government resources in advanced vehicle and fuel cell technologies would have significant economic value in the U.S. transportation sector and reduce its dependency on oil and its vulnerability to oil price shocks.