The impact of geopolitical risk on the stock market and stock bubbles in Vietnam: A mediation model

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Tác giả: Thai Duy, Le, Ha Manh, Nguyen, Pham, Lan Phuong, Mai Hoa Thi, Minh Tram Thi, Tran, Duc Van, Vu

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Kinh tế - Luật và Ngân hàng (Tên cũ: Tạp chí Khoa học và Đào tạo Ngân hàng), 2024

Mô tả vật lý: tr.50-65

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 287125

This paper aims to examine the indirect impact of geopolitical risk on theVietnamese stock market and stock bubbles (VSB) through its impact onmacro factors and commodity prices. Firstly, before testing the influence ofgeopolitical risk on stock bubbles, a stock bubble existence test using SADF(sup augmented Dickey-Fuller test) and GSADF (generalized sup Augmented Dickey-Fuller) is done. The tests show that stock bubbles appeared onthe Vietnamese stock market in 3 periods: September 2014 to November2014, June 2017 to May 2018 and March 2021 to March 2022. Secondly,the test on indirect relationship between geopolitical risk and Vietnam’sstock market and stock bubbles reveals that geopolitical risk has a significant indirect relationship with the stock market through intermediary factors including macroeconomic factors and natural gas prices, while it has asignificant indirect relationship with stock bubbles through the mediationrole of oil prices and natural gas prices. More specifically, the indirect relationships are weak but positive, which means that increasing geopoliticaltension may cause the VNIndex (representing Vietnam’s stock market) toincrease and may further exacerbate stock bubbles on the market. Finally,the indirect correlation between geopolitical risk and Vietnam’s stock bubble is discussed and a crucial finding is concluded that major geopoliticalevents often occurred just before and during the stock bubble formation.
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