Spillover Effects of China's Trade and Growth Shocks on ASEAN countries

• Tác giả: Nazmus Sadat Khan
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 320.45 Political science (Politics and government)
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 293449
• Chủ đề: 1. ASEAN TRADING PARTNERS; 2. ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATION (ASEAN) COUNTRIES; 3. CHINESE TRADE SHOCKS; 4. ECONOMIC INTEGRATION; 5. GLOBAL VECTOR AUTOREGRESSION (GVAR)

Tóm tắt

The paper uses a global vector autoregression model with quarterly time series data from 1994 to 2016 to investigate the spillover effects of Chinese trade and growth shocks on 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations countries. Time varying trade weights are used to construct the foreign variables in individual country models and structural generalized impulse response functions are used to conduct the dynamic analysis. The results show that a positive shock to Chinese trade and growth has a positive effect on the growth of Brunei, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. The effect is much weaker and statistically insignificant for other countries.