Estimating Potential Output in Developing Countries

• Tác giả: Andrew Burns
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 910.91 Geography of and travel in areas, regions, places in general
• Thông tin xuất bản: Elsevier, 2014
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 296771
• Chủ đề: 1. Forecasting; 2. Macro econometric model; 3. Policy analysis; 4. Potential GDP

Tóm tắt

This paper describes a parsimonious methodology employed by the World Bank for estimating potential output using the production function method. Despite the necessity of strong assumptions, sensitivity analysis suggests the reported estimates for 159 countries are robust to alternative specifications. Moreover, for the majority of countries estimated output gaps are positively correlated with inflation acceleration and negatively correlated with current account balances. An examination of estimated output gaps and post-crisis economic developments in several middle-income countries suggest that the methods can play a useful role in guiding macroeconomic policy.