From Demographic Dividend to Demographic Burden?

• Tác giả: Mikhail Matytsin
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 363.9 Population problems
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 297110
• Chủ đề: 1. ECONOMIC GROWTH; 2. GROWTH RATES; 3. POPULATION INCREASE; 4. RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH; 5. WORKFORCE

Tóm tắt

Do regions with higher working age populations grow faster? This paper examines this question using data from Russian regions and finds evidence that demographic trends influence regional growth convergence. In other words, keeping other factors constant, poorer regions grow faster than richer regions, and some of the growth convergence is explained by demographic changes: faster growth in poor regions in the past was related in part to more favorable demographic trends. This finding has important consequences for Russia. If the demographic trends in poorer regions worsen in the future, this could dampen economic convergence. Unless there are significant increases in labor productivity or additions to the labor force through migration, growth in Russian regions will moderate as the Russian population shrinks and ages in the coming decades.