How Economic Growth and Rational Decisions Can Make Disaster Losses Grow Faster Than Wealth

• Tác giả: Stephane Hallegatte
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 338.9 Economic development and growth
• Thông tin xuất bản: 2012
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 298060
• Chủ đề: 1. ACCOUNTING; 2. AGENTS; 3. AGRICULTURE; 4. BANKRUPTCY; 5. CAPITAL INVESTMENT

Tóm tắt

Assuming that capital productivity is higher in areas at risk from natural hazards (such as coastal zones or flood plains), this paper shows that rapid development in these areas -- and the resulting increase in disaster losses -- may be the consequence of a rational and well-informed trade-off between lower disaster losses and higher productivity. With disasters possibly becoming less frequent but increasingly destructive in the future, average disaster losses may grow faster than wealth. Myopic expectations, lack of information, moral hazard, and externalities reinforce the likelihood of this scenario. These results have consequences on how to design risk management and climate change policies.