Will Global Convergence of Per Capita Emissions Lead the Way to Meeting the UNFCCC Goal?

• Tác giả: Govinda R Timilsina
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 304.25 Climatic and weather factors
• Thông tin xuất bản: Taylor and Francis, 2016
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 298625
• Chủ đề: 1. carbon tax; 2. climate change; 3. emission intensity; 4. general equilibrium model; 5. international negotiation

Tóm tắt

One of the contentious issues of the ongoing climate negotiations is the huge differences in per-capita CO2 emissions between Annex I and Non-Annex I countries. This paper analyzes the costs of reducing this gap using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. A range of carbon taxes are considered for Annex I countries as policy instruments. Results show that the average per-capita CO2 emissions of Annex I countries would still remain almost twice as high as those of Non-Annex I countries in 2030 even if the CO2 emissions of the former are reduced by 57% from the baseline through a heavy carbon tax of 50/tCO2. The global reduction of CO2 emissions would be only 18% due to an increase in CO2 emissions in the Non-Annex I countries. This reduction would not be sufficient to stabilize atmospheric CO2 concentration at the level implied by UNFCCC to avoid dangerous climate change. The 50/tCO2 carbon tax, on the other hand, would reduce Annex I countries' gross domestic product by 2.4%, and global trade volume by 2%. This paper concludes that a demand for the convergence of per capita emissions between industrialized and developing countries would not be fruitful in climate change negotiations.