Narrow Incumbent Victories and Post-Election Conflict

• Tác giả: Benjamin Crost
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 323.1 Civil and political rights of nondominant groups
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 300431
• Chủ đề: 1. CIVIL CONFLICT; 2. ELECTION FRAUD; 3. INSTITUTIONAL WEAKNESS; 4. POST-ELECTION VIOLENCE

Tóm tắt

Post-election violence is a common form of conflict, but its underlying mechanisms are not well understood. Using data from the 2007 Philippine mayoral elections, this paper provides evidence that post-election violence is particularly intense after narrow victories by incumbents. Using a density test, the study shows that incumbents were substantially more likely to win narrow victories than their challengers, a pattern consistent with electoral manipulation. There is no evidence that the increase in post-election violence is related to the incumbent's political platform or their performance in past elections. These results provide support for the notion that post-election violence is triggered by election fraud or by the failure of democratic ways of removing unpopular incumbents from office.