This report assesses the future impact of two dynamically transforming economies - China and India - on Russia's economy. China is slowing down and rebalancing its economy whereas India is rapidly expanding. What does this hold for Russia? The report begins with a snapshot of findings, followed by eight chapters.
- Chapter one motivates the topic and identifies analytical and empirical gaps that this report fills.
- Chapter two examines the current pattern of trade between Russia and the two countries, and it discusses how important - or not - China and India's economies are for Russia.
- Chapter three follows by summarizing the results of three complementary approaches for measuring Russia's trade potential with China and India (and also the rest of the world).
- Chapter fourth intuitively describes the customized methodology developed for this report
its major caveats and assumptions, and its possible extensions (technical details, for those interested, are in the annexes).
- Chapter fifth outlines four plausible scenarios of the potential impact on Russia of changes in China and India, and chapter sixth presents the results.
- Chapter seventh explores the sensitivity of results to changes key in assumptions. Finally, chapter eighth concludes with emerging policy implications for Russia.