Predicting Food Crises

• Tác giả: Phoebe Spencer
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 612.39 Metabolism
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 304923
• Chủ đề: 1. COST-SENSITIVE LEARNING; 2. EXTREME EVENT; 3. FAMINE; 4. FOOD INSECURITY; 5. FOOD SECURITY

Tóm tắt

Globally, more than 130 million people are estimated to be in food crisis. These humanitarian disasters are associated with severe impacts on livelihoods that can reverse years of development gains. The existing outlooks of crisis-affected populations rely on expert assessment of evidence and are limited in their temporal frequency and ability to look beyond several months. This paper presents a statistical forecasting approach to predict the outbreak of food crises with sufficient lead time for preventive action. Different use cases are explored related to possible alternative targeting policies and the levels at which finance is typically unlocked. The results indicate that, particularly at longer forecasting horizons, the statistical predictions compare favorably to expert-based outlooks. The paper concludes that statistical models demonstrate good ability to detect future outbreaks of food crises and that using statistical forecasting approaches may help increase lead time for action.