Do Regional Trade Pacts Benefit the Poor? An Illustration from Dominican Republic--Central American Free Trade Agreement in Nicaragua

• Tác giả: Maurizio Bussolo
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 336.20 Public finance
• Thông tin xuất bản: 2012
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 305214
• Chủ đề: 1. Economic Development: Human Resources; 2. Economic Integration F150; 3. Measurement and Analysis of Poverty I320; 4. Personal Income, Wealth, and Their Distributions D310; 5. Trade and Labor Market Interactions F160

Tóm tắt

This paper provides an ex-ante assessment of the poverty and income distribution impacts of the Central American Free Trade Area agreement on Nicaragua. A general equilibrium macro model is used to simulate trade reform scenarios and estimate their price effects, while a micro module maps these price changes into real income changes at the individual household level. The final impact on poverty is not too large, but its dispersion across households is significant and should be considered when designing compensatory policies. A main policy message is that Nicaragua should consider enlarging its own liberalization to countries other than the United States to boost trade-induced poverty reductions.