The True Cost of War

• Tác giả: Erhan Artuc
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 303.66 War and peace
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 305606
• Chủ đề: 1. BURDEN OF WAR; 2. CONFLICT; 3. DATA CONSTRAINTS; 4. DATA CONSTRAINTS INTERNALLY DISPLACED PEOPLE; 5. REVEALED-PREFERENCES

Tóm tắt

Measuring the economic impact of a war is a daunting task. Common indicators like casualties, infrastructure damages, and gross domestic product effects provide useful benchmarks, but they fail to capture the complex welfare effects of wars. This paper proposes a new method to estimate the welfare impact of conflicts and remedy common data constraints in conflict-affected environments. The method first estimates how agents regard spatial welfare differentials by voting with their feet, using pre-conflict data. Then, it infers a lower-bound estimate for the conflict-driven welfare shock from partially observed post-conflict migration patterns. A case study of the conflict in Eastern Ukraine between 2014 and 2019 shows a large lower-bound welfare loss for Donetsk residents equivalent to between 7.28 and 24.79 percent of life-time income depending on agents' time preferences.