Eliciting Probabilistic Expectations with Visual Aids in Developing Countries: How Sensitive Are Answers to Variations in Elicitation Design?

• Tác giả: Adeline Delavande
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 001.43 Historical, descriptive, experimental methods
• Thông tin xuất bản: 2012
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 308844
• Chủ đề: 1. Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty D810; 2. Expectations; 3. Sampling Methods C830; 4. Speculations D840; 5. Survey Methods

Tóm tắt

Eliciting subjective probability distributions in developing countries is often based on visual aids such as beans to represent probabilities and intervals on a sheet of paper to represent the support. We conduct an experiment in India which tests the sensitivity of elicited expectations to variations in three facets of the elicitation methodology: the number of beans, the design of the support (predetermined or self-anchored), and the ordering of questions. Our results show remarkable robustness to variations in elicitation design. Nevertheless, the added precision offered by using more beans and a larger number of intervals with a predetermined support improves accuracy.