Predicting World Bank Project Outcome Ratings

• Tác giả: Patricia Geli
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 910.91 Geography of and travel in areas, regions, places in general
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 310307
• Chủ đề: 1. AID; 2. CORRECTIVE ACTIONS; 3. DEVELOPMENT ISSUES; 4. DEVELOPMENT OBJECTIVES; 5. DEVELOPMENT POLICY

Tóm tắt

A number of recent studies have empirically documented links between characteristics of World Bank projects and their ultimate outcomes as evaluated by the World Bank's Independent Evaluation Group. This paper explores the in-sample and out-of-sample predictive performance of empirical models relating project outcomes to project characteristics observed early in the life of a project. Such models perform better than self-assessments of project performance provided by World Bank staff during the implementation of the project. These findings are applied to the problem of predicting eventual Independent Evaluation Group ratings for currently active projects in the World Bank's portfolio.