The purpose of this report is to advise the Thai government and Thai society at large about the full range of benefits, costs, and consequences that are likely to result from the decision to expand public provision of antiretroviral therapy (ART) through National Access to Antiretroviral Program for People Living with HIV/AIDS (NAPHA) and to assist with the design of implementation policies that will achieve maximum treatment benefits, while promoting prevention of HIV/AIDS and maintaining financial sustainability within Thailand. The study has several significant findings: NAPHA with first-line regimen only is the most cost-effective policy option of those studied
NAPHA with second-line therapy is still affordable and yields large benefits in terms of life-years saved
policy options to enhance adherence and to recruit patients earlier are a good public investment
public financing will help ensure equitable access
public financing can strengthen positive spillovers and can limit negative spillovers of ART
if the success of ART rollout makes people or the government complacent about prevention, future costs could rise substantially
and future government expenditures on ART, and the lives it will save are highly sensitive to negotiated agreements on the intellectual property rights for pharmaceuticals. In its current form, Thailand's NAPHA program is affordable. Under the model's assumptions, it is also cost-effective relative to the baseline scenario. Furthermore, although the two enhanced policies we suggest early recruitment through expanded voluntary counseling and testing (VCT) and improved adherence through Person living with HIV/AIDS (PHA) groups are less cost-effective, they are still a good bargain, particularly if both are enacted.