Is Random Forest a Superior Methodology for Predicting Poverty?

• Tác giả: Thomas Pave Sohnesen
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 362.57 Measures to prevent, protect against, limit effects of poverty
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 314956
• Chủ đề: 1. CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES; 2. HOUSEHOLD SIZE; 3. HOUSEHOLD SURVEY; 4. POOR HOUSEHOLD; 5. PREDICTIONS

Tóm tắt

Random forest is in many fields of research a common method for data driven predictions. Within economics and prediction of poverty, random forest is rarely used. Comparing out-of-sample predictions in surveys for same year in six countries shows that random forest is often more accurate than current common practice (multiple imputations with variables selected by stepwise and Lasso), suggesting that this method could contribute to better poverty predictions. However, none of the methods consistently provides accurate predictions of poverty over time, highlighting that technical model fitting by any method within a single year is not always, by itself, sufficient for accurate predictions of poverty over time.