Provides a brief assessment of how natural resource scarcity and global climate change may alter the risk of violent conflict in the future. Resource scarcity to meet basic needs such as food and land and water can be worsened by governmental ineffectiveness, and vulnerability of populations, ecosystems, economies, and institutions can outweigh the magnitude of climate or scarcity impacts themselves. Resource availability must be seen not as a stand-alone issue, but rather in the context of the overall political economy landscape. Policymakers can benefit from the use of surveillance, early warning systems, and risk anticipation to plan for coming natural disasters and associated scarcity. Development of resilience can offer valuable adaptation and risk reduction methodologies while international action needs to focus on improving cooperation and resilience of international markets through multilateral trade rules or stockpiling of key commodities.