The Impact of the Arab Spring on the Tunisian Economy

• Tác giả: Samer Matta
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 348.61 Laws, regulations, cases
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 317291
• Chủ đề: 1. Arab Spring; 2. distributed lag model; 3. economic impact; 4. output loss; 5. synthetic control methodology

Tóm tắt

This paper uses Synthetic Control Methodology to estimate the output loss in Tunisia as a result of the "Arab Spring." The results suggest that the loss was 5.5 percent, 5.1 percent, and 6.4 percent of GDP in 2011, 2012, and 2013 respectively. These findings are robust to a series of tests, including placebo tests, and are consistent with those from an Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model of Tunisia's economic growth. Moreover, this paper finds that investment was the main channel through which the economy was adversely impacted by the Arab Spring.