R&D and Aggregate Fluctuations

• Tác giả: Erhan Artuc
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 338.54 Economic fluctuations
• Thông tin xuất bản: Elsevier, 2015
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 318917
• Chủ đề: 1. Business cycles; 2. Cycles; 3. Investment-specific shocks; 4. R&D; 5. Technology shocks

Tóm tắt

Empirical observations raise interesting questions regarding the sources of the excessive volatility in the R&D sector as well as the nature of the relation between the sector and aggregate fluctuations. Using US data for the period 1959-2007, we identify sectoral technology and capital investment-specific shocks by employing a Vector Autoregression. The identifying assumptions are motivated by a two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model. Controlling for real and nominal factors, we find that capital investment-specific shocks explain 70 percent of fluctuations of R&D investment, while R&D technology shocks explain 30 percent of the variation of aggregate output, net of R&D investment. Technology shocks jointly explain almost all the variation of output in the R&D sector and 78 percent of the variation of output in the rest of the economy. They also constitute the main factor of the procyclicality of R&D investment.