Growth, Inequality, and Simulated Poverty Paths for Tanzania, 1992-2002

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Tác giả: Gabriel Demombynes

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 342.67 Constitutional and administrative law

Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2013

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở

ID: 320232

Although Tanzania experienced relatively rapid growth in per capita GDP in the 1995 2001 period, household budget survey (HBS) data show only a modest and statistically insignificant decline in poverty between 1992 and 2001. To assess the likely trajectory of poverty rates over the course of the period, changes in poverty are simulated using unit-record HBS data and national accounts growth rates under varying assumptions for growth rates and inequality changes. To this end the projection approach of Datt and Walker (2002) is used along with an extension that is better suited to taking into account distributional changes observed between the two household surveys. The simulations suggest that following increases in poverty during the economic slowdown of the early 1990s, recent growth in Tanzania has brought a decline in poverty, particularly in urban areas. Unless recent growth is sustained, the country will not meet its 2015 Millennium Development Goal (MDG). Poverty reduction is on track in urban areas, but reaching the MDG target for bringing down poverty in rural areas, where most Tanzanians live, requires sustaining high growth in rural output per capita.
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