Reversal of Fortune for Political Incumbents

• Tác giả: Rabah Arezki
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 324.24 The political process
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2020
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 320956
• Chủ đề: 1. CONSUMPTION; 2. ECONOMIC SHOCK; 3. ELECTIONS; 4. OIL PRICES; 5. POLITICAL ECONOMY

Tóm tắt

Using a new data set of 207 national elections across 50 democracies, this paper is the first to systematically examine the effects of oil price shocks on incumbents' political fortunes in developed oil-importing countries. We find that oil price increases systematically lower the odds of reelection for incumbents and increase the likelihood of changes in the ideology of the incoming government. These shocks are found to operate through lowering consumption growth.