Uncertainty in Preferential Trade Agreements

• Tác giả: Habtamu Edjigu
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 341.24 Regional organizations
• Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2023
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 322282
• Chủ đề: 1. AFRICA GROWTH AND OPPORTUNITY ACT (ACGOA); 2. EXPORT DECLINE; 3. EXPORT UNCERTAINTY; 4. FREE TRADE AGREEMENT; 5. PREFERENTIAL TRADE AGREEMENT

Tóm tắt

 This study examines the impact of the abrupt suspension of African Growth and Opportunity Act benefits on exports from eligible African countries. The study uses a triple difference-in-differences estimation that controls for both country- and product-level export changes. The results suggest that the suspension of the African Growth and Opportunity Act has had a considerable negative impact on the level of exports to the United States. The impact appears to be bigger for countries with a high African Growth and Opportunity Act utilization rate. The suspension is associated with a 39 percent decline in exports to the United States. At the product level, the suspension hurt apparel and textile exports, leading to a decline of their exports by about 88 percent. Understanding the impact of withdrawing access to a nonreciprocal trade agreement is particularly important now, as the European Union began negotiating Economic Partnership Agreements with African countries, as a sign of a shift to reciprocity
  the United States is considering a similar path of negotiating free trade agreements with individual African countries. These developments underscore the need to prepare for a post-African Growth and Opportunity Act period with more reciprocity, as trade uncertainty is becoming rampant.