Government Spending Multipliers in Developing Countries : Evidence from Lending by Official Creditors

• Tác giả: Aart Kraay
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 330.91 Treatment by areas, regions, places in general
• Thông tin xuất bản: American Economic Association, 2013
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 323660
• Chủ đề: 1. fiscal policy; 2. government spending multipliers

Tóm tắt

This paper uses a novel loan-level dataset covering lending by official creditors to developing country governments to construct an instrument for government spending. These loans typically finance multi-year spending projects, with disbursements linked to the stages of project implementation. The identification strategy exploits the long lags between approval and eventual disbursement of these loans to isolate a predetermined component of public spending associated with past loan approval decisions taken before the realization of contemporaneous shocks. In a large sample of 102 developing countries over the period 1970-2010, the one-year spending multiplier is reasonably-precisely estimated to be around 0.4.