A New Scenario Framework for Climate Change Research

• Tác giả: Detlef P van Vuuren
• Ngôn ngữ: eng
• Ký hiệu phân loại: 304.25 Climatic and weather factors
• Thông tin xuất bản: Springer, 2015
• Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở
• ID: 324578
• Chủ đề: 1. adaptation policy; 2. carbon price; 3. carbon tax; 4. climate policy; 5. scenario development process

Tóm tắt

This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different adaptation and mitigation strategies (in terms of their costs, risks and other consequences) and the possible trade-offs and synergies. The two main axes of the matrix are: 1) the level of radiative forcing of the climate system (as characterised by the representative concentration pathways) and 2) a set of alternative plausible trajectories of future global development (described as shared socio-economic pathways). The matrix can be used to guide scenario development at different scales. It can also be used as a heuristic tool for classifying new and existing scenarios for assessment. Key elements of the architecture, in particular the shared socio-economic pathways and shared policy assumptions (devices for incorporating explicit mitigation and adaptation policies), are elaborated in other papers in this special issue.