Estimating the Gravity Model When Zero Trade Flows are Frequent and Economically Determined

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Tác giả: Cong S Pham

Ngôn ngữ: eng

Ký hiệu phân loại: 571.43 Bimechanics and effects of mechanical forces

Thông tin xuất bản: World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015

Mô tả vật lý:

Bộ sưu tập: Tài liệu truy cập mở

ID: 326197

This paper evaluates the performance of alternative estimators of the gravity equation when zero trade flows result from economically-based data-generating processes with heteroscedastic residuals and potentially-omitted variables. In a standard Monte Carlo analysis, the paper finds that this combination can create seriously biased estimates in gravity models with frequencies of zero frequently observed in real-world data, and that Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood models can be important in solving this problem. Standard threshold-Tobit estimators perform well in a Tobit-based data-generating process only if the analysis deals with the heteroscedasticity problem. When the data are generated by a Heckman sample selection model, the Zero-Inflated Poisson model appears to have the lowest bias. When the data are generated by a Helpman, Melitz, and Rubinstein-type model with heterogeneous firms, a Zero-Inflated Poisson estimator including firm numbers appears to provide the best results. Testing on real-world data for total trade throws up additional puzzles with truncated Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood and Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood estimators being very similar, and Zero-Inflated Poisson and truncated Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood identical. Repeating the Monte Carlo analysis taking into account the high frequency of very small predicted trade flows in real-world data reconciles these findings and leads to specific recommendations for estimators.
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