NGHIÊN CỨU ĐÁNH GIÁ MỨC ĐỘ SUY THOÁI DIỆN TÍCH PHỦ CỦA CÁC HỆ SINH THÁI ĐIỂN HÌNH BIỂN PHÚ QUỐC THEO KỊCH BẢN BIẾN ĐỔI KHÍ HẬU, NƯỚC BIỂN DÂNG

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Tác giả: Quang Dũng Bạch, Hương Giang Đào, Thị Bích Ngọc Ngô

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khoa học Biến đổi khí hậu, 2022

Mô tả vật lý: tr.24 - 32

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 329590

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Phu Quoc is a large island located in the Southwest Sea. This island has great potential for economic development whilst being relevant to national security. In recent years, climate change and sea level rise are factors which have made ecosystems such as coral reefs, seagrasses, mangroves being severely degraded. In this study, we used the weighted measurement methods to measure and evaluate quantitively the effects of factors attributing to degrade the ecosystems such as economic-social development activities and climate changes, sea level rises. This method consists of 3 steps as following: (1) Determining the causes of the recession
(2) Determining the weights for the causes and the degree of degradation corresponding to 1 weight
and (3) Calculating the degree of ecosystem degradation by weighting and forecasting time. The forecast of ecosystem degradation level of Phu Quoc is made according to climate change scenarios - RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 in 2050. This research paper can provide more detailed results as following: reduction of coverage of mangrove ecosystem is predicted to be 19,2% according RCP4.5 scenarios and 22,4% according RCP8.5 scenarios
reduction of coverage of seagrasses ecosystem is predicted to be 16,8% according RCP4.5 scenarios and 21,6% according RCP8.5 scenarios
reduction of coverage of coral reefs ecosystem is predicted to be 21,12% according RCP4.5 scenarios and 24,96% according RCP8.5 scenarios. The results from the research have enormous implications for scientific research, serving to measure economic losses due to ecosystem degradation caused by climate change, rising sea levels and and propose solutions to conserve and manage ecosystems effectively in the context of climate change.Phú Quốc là một đảo lớn nằm ở biển Tây Nam Bộ. Vùng biển đảo Phú Quốc nhạy cảm về an ninh quốc phòng và giàu tiềm năng phát triển kinh tế. Những năm gần đây, dưới tác động của biến đổi khí hậu, nước biển dâng (BĐKH, NBD) làm các hệ sinh thái (HST) như rạn san hô (RSH), thảm cỏ biển (TCB), rừng ngập mặn (RNM) bị suy thoái nghiêm trọng. Trong nghiên cứu này, chúng tôi sử dụng phương pháp trọng số để định lượng hóa tác động của các nguyên nhân gây suy thoái các HST như các hoạt động phát triển kinh tế - xã hội và BĐKH, NBD. Phương pháp được thực hiện gồm 3 bước sau: (1) Xác định nguyên nhân gây suy thoái
(2) Xác định trọng số cho các nguyên nhân và mức độ suy thoái ứng với 1 trọng số
và (3) Tính mức độ suy thoái HST theo trọng số và thời gian dự báo. Việc dự báo mức độ suy thoái HST tiêu biểu của Phú Quốc được thực hiện theo kịch bản BĐKH RCP 4.5 (kịch bản nồng độ khí nhà kính trung bình thấp) và RCP 8.5 (kịch bản nồng độ khí nhà kính cao) cho năm 2050. Kết quả như sau: RNM suy thoái 19,2% theo kịch bản RCP4.5 và 22,4% theo kịch bản RCP8.5, TCB suy thoái 16,8% theo kịch bản RCP4.5 và 21,6% theo kịch bản RCP8.5, RSH suy thoái 21,12% theo kịch bản RCP4.5 và 24,96% theo kịch bản RCP8.5. Kết quả nghiên cứu có ý nghĩa to lớn trong nghiên cứu khoa học, phục vụ cho việc tính toán thiệt hại kinh tế do suy thoái HST dưới tác động của BĐKH, NBD và đề xuất các giải pháp bảo tồn và quản lý các HST hiệu quả trong bối cảnh BĐKH.

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