Ứng dụng thử nghiệm dự báo số ngày nắng nóng, nắng nóng gay gắt theo mùa tại Việt Nam năm 2022 bằng phương pháp tương quan Canon

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Tác giả: Phúc Lâm Hoàng, Thị Mai Hoàng, Văn Khiêm Mai, Thanh Hoa Nguyễn, Văn Hưởng Nguyễn, Ngọc Vân Trần, Quang Điệp Trần, Thùy Nguyên Trịnh

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khí tượng Thủy văn, 2022

Mô tả vật lý: tr.64-78

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 329987

Thêm vào giỏ Liên kết toàn văn

Bài báo trình bày một số kết quả thử nghiệm dự báo số ngày nắng nóng (SNNN), nắng nóng gay gắt (NNGG) theo mùa 3 tháng tại Việt Nam năm 2022, sử dụng phương pháp phân tích tương quan Canon (CCA), nhằm chuyển hóa thông tin dự báo của các mô hình khí hậu toàn cầu về khu vực quan tâm. Trong nghiên cứu, nhóm tác giả sử dụng 3 nhân tố là: nhiệt độ trung bình, nhiệt độ tối cao và áp cao cận nhiệt mực 500mb theo mùa 3 tháng, thời điểm dự báo 01/2022, miền tính: 800E–1400W
50S–450N, độ phân giải 1,0×1,00 chiết suất từ các mô hình khí hậu: NASAGEO_SS2S, CCSM_4, CFS2, GFDL_SPEAR, ECMWF. Sau khi, xác định tương quan cao giữa các nhân tố với SNNN và NNGG gắt trên gần 200 điểm trạm, nhóm tác giả thực hiện thử nghiệm dự báo cho các mùa năm 2022. Kết quả cho thấy vào mùa tháng 3–5, hầu hết các mô hình đều mô phỏng SNNN, NNGG có xu hướng xuất hiện thấp hơn trung bình nhiều năm (TBNN), xác suất từ 60–75%. Trong khi các mùa từ tháng 4–6, 5–7, 6–8 và 7–9 SNNN, NNGG cao hơn TBNN
riêng một số nơi ở miền Nam Tây Nguyên và Đông Nam Bộ thấp hơn TBNN. Dự báo áp dụng thử nghiệm tại một số thành phố: Hà Nội, Đà Nẵng và Bình Phước, kết quả được trình bày chi tiết trong phần 3.The article presents some experimental results in seasonal forecasting of the number of extreme and hot days in Vietnam using the Canon correlation analysis method (CCA), in order to transform forecast information of global climate models for the regional. Using 3 predictors including the 3–month average temperature, maximum temperature and 500 mb subtropical high–pressure data from models NMME: NASAGEO_SS2S, CCSM_4, CFS2, GFDL_SPEAR, and ECMWF in domain: 80oE–140oW
5oS–45oN, resolution 1,0x1,0o. The high correlation betweens the predictors – the number of extreme and hot days on nearly 200 stations spread across Vietnam, then the authors performed a forecasting experiment. The obtained results show that in the transitional season MAM, most models forecast the number of extreme and hot days that tend to appear less than the normal withthe probabilistic from 60–75%. In AMJ, MJJ, JJA and JAS, the number of extreme and hot days tends to be above normal, only in some areas in the south of Central Highlands and Southeast tends to be less than normal. The forecast is applied experimentally in a number of cities: Hanoi, Da Nang and Binh Phuoc, the results show detail in Part 3 of the article.

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