Đánh giá mối quan hệ theo không gian của mưa cực trị và tính toán hệ số chuyển đổi từ mưa điểm sang mưa diện: Ứng dụng cho các trạm mưa phía Bắc Việt Nam

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Tác giả: Phương Đông Lê

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khoa học Kỹ thuật Thủy lợi và Môi trường, 2022

Mô tả vật lý: tr.104

Bộ sưu tập: Báo, Tạp chí

ID: 331607

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Dpendence properties of spatial rainfall extremes provides information regarding the simultaneous or non-simultaneous occurrence of extreme rainfall at different locations in a catchment. The lack of this information will lead to inaccuracies in flood studies, such as the estimation of the area reduction factors (ARFs) for a given catchment. Currently, there is also an disagreement about whether extreme rainfall has the properties of asymptotic dependence or asymptotic independence. This paper has shown that the extreme rainfall in the northern region of Vietnam has the properties of asymptotic independence, so the asymptotic independence model has been selected to conduct extreme rainfallsimulation for the study area. The results of calculating the area reduction factors (ARFs) from simulated and observed rainfall data are very suitable for long return periods (20, 50, and 100 years), and ARFs calculated from simulated rainfall are also useful for extrapolating to rarer frequencies. The paper also recommends that future studies should use asymptotic independence models to simulate extreme rainfall for the study area.Mối quan hệ theo không gian của mưa cực trị cung cấp thông tin liên quan đến sự xuất hiện đồng thời hay không đồng thời của mưa cực trị tại các khu vực khác nhau trong một lưu vực. Sự thiếu hụt những thông tin này sẽ dẫn đến những sai sót trong các tính toán liên quan đến mô phỏng dòng chảy lũ, ví dụ như xác định hệ số chuyển đổi từ mưa điểm sang mưa diện (areal reduction factors - ARFs) cho một lưu vực. Hiện nay cũng đang có sự không thống nhất về việc liệu rằng mưa cực trị mang thuộc tính của cực trị tiệm cận phụ thuộc (asymptotic dependence) hay là cực trị tiệm cận độc lập (asymptotic independence). Bài báo này đã chỉ ra rằng mưa cực trị ở khu vực phía Bắc Việt Nam mang thuộc tính của loại hình cực trị tiệm cận độc lập (asymptotic independence), do đó loại mô hình cực trị tiệm cận độc lập (asymptotic independence model) được lựa chọn để tiến hành mô phỏng mưa cực trị cho khu vực nghiên cứu. Kết quả tính toán hệ số chuyển đổi từ mưa điểm sang mưa diện ARFs từ số liệu mưa mô phỏng và mưa quan trắc rất phù hợp cho các mức thời gian lặp lại dài (20, 50, và 100 năm), và hệ số ARFs tính toán từ dữ liệu mô phỏng rất hữu ích cho việc ngoại suy hệ số này cho các tần suất hiếm hơn. Bài báo cũng khuyến cáo các nghiên cứu trong tương lai nên dùng mô hình cực trị tiệm cận độc lập để mô phỏng mưa cực trị cho khu vực nghiên cứu.

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