Kiểm định mối quan hệ nhân quả giữa lạm phát và biến động của thị trường chứng khoán tại Việt Nam

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Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khoa học và Đào tạo Ngân hàng (Tên mới: Tạp chí Kinh tế - Luật và Ngân hàng), 2018

Mô tả vật lý: tr.45664

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ID: 333617

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Nghiên cứu này nhằm mục tiêu kiểm định mối quan hệ nhân quả giữa lạm phát và biến động của thị trường chứng khoán (TTCK) tại Việt Nam kể từ thời điểm TTCK bắt đầu giao dịch. Từ mối quan hệ này, nghiên cứu chỉ ra mối quan hệ cũng như mức độ tác động của lạm phát tới thay đổi của TTCK trong thời gian dài. Bài nghiên cứu sử dụng dữ liệu về chỉ số VN-Index để đại diện cho TTCK Việt Nam trong giai đoạn từ tháng 8/2000 tới tháng 5/2018. Giá trị của c hỉ số được lấy bình quân các ngày giao dịch trong tháng đó. Đối với biến số lạm phát, chuỗi dữ liệu về sự thay đổi của CPI (Consumer Price Index- chỉ số giá tiêu dùng) được sử dụng để đại diện cho sự thay đổi về lạm phát theo tháng tương ứng với giá trị của chỉ số VN-Index bình quân tháng. Kết quả của kiểm định Granger cho thấy sự biến động của chỉ số CPI có tác động tới sự thay đổi điểm trung bình tháng của chỉ số VN-Index. Mặc dù mức độ thay đổi chỉ số CPI là lớn nhưng lại không tác động ngay/trực tiếp tới chỉ số VN-Index, mà cần độ trễ lên tới 6 tháng.The system of payment through banks has a long history of development, with the role of management, development and pioneer of the State Bank of Vietnam In recent years, from the units of the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to commercial banks and related organizations, has been implementing synchronized non-cash payment solutions. This is also considered the political task of the entire banking sector, the implementation of decisions of the Prime Minister, decisions of the Governor of the State Bank, improve the competitiveness of credit institutions (CIs) in the trend of further international economic integration, join CPTPP. The paper uses qualitative methods, calculations, analyzes and assessments based on reports of the SBV, some commercial banks, Refer to some related studies for recommendations. The paper focuses on analyzing, assessing, clarifying the status of the formation, development and operation of banking payment systems in Vietnam over the past few years, this has included the participation of non-cash payment service providers through banks. the performance status of banking payment systems
Results of payment activity in the economy in 2014- 2017. The paper recommends 3 groups of solutions: For the Government and relevant Ministries
the State Bank and for commercial banks and payment service providers to continue to develop non-cash payment in the coming time

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