Nghiên cứu hiệu chỉnh lượng mưa ước lượng từ radar phục vụ nâng cao chất lượng mô phỏng dòng chảy

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Tác giả: Văn Đại Hoàng, Văn Khiêm Mai, Hoàng Minh Nguyễn, Phương Nhung Nguyễn, Tiến Dũng Phùng, Thị Thanh Vân Vũ

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khí tượng Thủy văn, 2022

Mô tả vật lý: tr.23-35

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 335605

Thêm vào giỏ Liên kết toàn văn

Lượng mưa ước lượng từ radar đã được khai thác và ứng dụng ở rất nhiều nơi trên thế giới cho các mô phỏng thủy văn nhờ ưu điểm về mặt phân bố không gian so với lượng mưa quan trắc ở các trạm mặt đất. Ở Việt Nam, do hệ thống radar thời tiết mới được nâng cấp và xây dựng đủ tốt trong vài năm gần đây nên việc khai thác và ứng dụng cho thủy văn vẫn còn rất hạn chế. Bởi vì lượng mưa ước lượng từ radar thường bao gồm nhiều sai số đến từ các nguồn khác nhau nên trước khi sử dụng để mô phỏng và dự báo dòng chảy, việc thực hiện hiệu chỉnh để giảm thiểu sai số là rất cần thiết. Vì vậy, nghiên cứu này được thực hiện để hiệu chỉnh lượng mưa ước lượng từ radar nhằm mục đích cải thiện chất lượng đầu vào cho bài toán mô phỏng dòng chảy ở Việt Nam. Hai phương pháp khí hậu và kỹ thuật lọc Kalman được áp dụng liên tiếp nhau để nâng cao độ chính xác lượng mưa ước lượng từ radar. Kết quả áp dụng thử nghiệm cho lưu vực sông Mã cho thấy chất lượng lượng mưa ước lượng từ radar đã tăng lên đáng kể với sự cải thiện của các chỉ tiêu sai số trung bình, hệ số tương quan và sai số quân phương.Radar rainfall estimates have been exploited and widely used in the world for hydrological simulations thanks to the advantages of spatial distribution compared to observed rainfall at ground stations. In Vietnam, due to the weather radar system has been upgraded and installed in recent years, the exploitation and use for hydrology is still very limited. Because radar rainfall estimates often consist of many errors arising from various sources, before using for flow simulation and prediction, bias correction is very necessary to minize errors. Therefore, this study was conducted to correct the radar rainfall estimates in order to improve the input quality for runoff simulation in Vietnam. Two methods including climatology and Kalman filtering technique are applied consecutively to increase the accuracy of radar rainfall estimates. The results of applying to the Ma River basin show that the quality of radar rainfall estimates has increased significantly with the improvement of mean error, correlation coefficicent and root mean square error.

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