Phân tích tương quan giữa mực nước quan trắc bổ sung với mực nước tại các trạm mực nước ven biển Tây Nam Bộ

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Tác giả: Minh Nhân Huỳnh, Đình Quyết Lê, Xuân Hiền Lê, Minh Giám Nguyễn, Thị Tuyết Nguyễn, Xuân Hưng Trịnh

Ngôn ngữ: vie

Ký hiệu phân loại:

Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khí tượng Thủy văn, 2023

Mô tả vật lý: tr.45665

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 338261

Thêm vào giỏ Liên kết toàn văn

In recent years, the Southwestern coastal area has been experiencing unusually high water levels. To predict and warn about this phenomenon, the main causes and mechanisms must be identified. To have a scientific basis for determining the cause of the unusual sea level rise, it is also necessary to calculate the correlation between the additional measured water level in the coastal area and the neighboring hydrological stations. The data put in to calculate is the hourly water level, in July and August 2022. The regression correlation using linear functions was one of the main methods used. The correlation can be expressed when representing the regression equation Y = a0 + a1Xt. Where: Y is the value of the function
Xt: chronological number and a₀, a₁: regression coefficients. The coefficient a1 represents the slope of the regression line, which indicates whether the trend is increasing or decreasing over time. If a1 is negative, the trend is downward over time, and vice versa. The results showed that only Song Doc station has a high correlation coefficient with additional measured water level data in the Hon Da Bac coastal area. West Sea stations have a correlation coefficient of R² >
0.45. All stations on the East Sea have low correlation coefficients. This result can be used as a reference to build forecasting and warning modelsNhững năm gần đây, vùng ven biển Tây Nam Bộ thường xảy ra hiện tượng mực nước dâng cao bất thường, gây thiệt hại rất nặng nề. Để dự báo, cảnh báo được hiện tượng này, cần xác định được nguyên nhân, cơ chế chính. Để có cơ sở khoa học xác định nguyên nhân gây mực nước biển dâng dị thường cũng cần tính mối tương quan giữa mực nước đo bổ sung vùng ven biển với các trạm thủy văn lân cận.Số liệu đưa vào tính toán là số liệu mực nước giờ, trong tháng 7 và tháng 8 năm 2022. Phương pháp chủ yếu sử dụng gồm phương pháp tương quan hồi quy bằng hàm tuyến tính. Tương quan được biểu diễn bằng phương trình hồi quy Y =a0 + a1 Xt. Trong đó: Y là giá trị của hàm
Xt: số thứ tự thời gian và a₀, a₁: các hệ số hồi qui. Hệ số a₁ cho biết hướng dốc của đường hồi quy, nói lên xu thế biến đổi tăng hay giảm theo thời gian. Nếu a1 âm nghĩa là xu thế giảm theo thời gian và ngược lại. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy chỉ có trạm Sông Đốc có hệ số tương quan tốt với số liệu mực nước đo bổ sung tại khu vực ven biển Hòn Đá Bạc, những trạm bên biển Tây có hệ số tương quan R² >
0,45, các trạm bên biển Đông hệ số tương qua thấp. Kết quả này có thể làm tham khảo để xây dựng mô hình dự báo, cảnh báo.

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