Nghiên cứu ứng dụng mô hình sinh thái cây trồng DSSAT và dữ liệu viễn thám trong mô phỏng, đánh giá năng suất lúa theo các kịch bản cấp nước

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Tác giả: Xuân Hùng Đinh, Thanh Lân Hà, Tiến Thành Hoàng, Công Minh Nguyễn, Nguyên Hoàn Nguyễn, Văn Tuấn Nguyễn

Ngôn ngữ: vie

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Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khoa học và Công nghệ Thủy lợi, 2023

Mô tả vật lý: tr.66

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 340062

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In recent years, droughts and water shortage become more in severe both in frequency and scale. The increasing occurrence included is irrigation systems, for example in the Central region in 2015- 2016 and 2019-2020. Therefore, it is necessary to conduct researching on methodologies and tools to assess the impact of water shortage on crop productivity. This paper presents the results of a research recently conducted at Nam Hung Nghi irrigation system, which focused on the application of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model, in which impacts of various irrigation water supply scenarios on rice crop growth and yield were assessed. The calibrated and validated DSSAT model using global open-source and remote sensing data provided simulation and forecast of rice yield under various water shortage scenarios, including the reduction of the amount of water to 20%, 30%, 50%, 60% of water supply for each stage or the whole growth process. When irrigation was reduced by 60%, the result showed that rice yield had the greatest risk of a decrease of 1.7 quintals/ha (3.2%) at the flowering stage and 4.1 quintals/ha (7.8%) at the growing stage. These are valuable information and results that can be used in the development of water supply scenarios, thereby ensuring a fair and reasonable allocation of water resources, and adaptation to climate change for different water users in the irrigation system.Trong những năm gần đây, tình trạng khô hạn, thiếu nước diễn ra với tần suất và quy mô ngày càng khốc liệt, gây ra ảnh hưởng không nhỏ đến đời sống, các hoạt động dân sinh kinh tế và sản xuất nông nghiệp. Tình trạng hạn hán, thiếu nước cũng xảy ra ngay cả trong phạm vi một số hệ thống thủy lợi, ví dụ như tại miền Trung các năm 2015-2016 và 2019-2020. Thực tiễn đó đặt ra yêu cầu phải nghiên cứu và thiết lập công cụ đánh giá ảnh hưởng của thiếu hụt nguồn nước tưới đến sản xuất và năng suất cây trồng. Bài báo này trình bày kết quả nghiên cứu ứng dụng mô hình Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) trong đánh giá ảnh hưởng của thay đổi lượng nước tưới đến quá trình sinh trưởng và năng suất lúa, thực hiện tại hệ thống thuỷ lợi Nam Hưng Nghi, Nghệ An. Mô hình DSSAT được xây dựng dựa trên các dữ liệu nguồn mở, dữ liệu viễn thám và hiệu chỉnh kiểm định dựa trên số liệu thu thập thực tế về năng suất cây trồng. Sau khi hiệu chỉnh, kiểm định, mô hình DSSAT cho các kết quả mô phỏng, dự báo năng suất của cây lúa theo kịch bản thiếu nước, bao gồm việc giảm lượng nước tưới 20%, 30%, 50%, 60% cho từng giai đoạn hoặc trên cả quá trình sinh trưởng của cây lúa. Kết quả nghiên cứu cho thấy năng suất lúa có khả năng giảm mạnh nhất 1,7 tạ/ha (3.2%) khi giảm 60% lượng nước tưới ở giai đoạn trổ cờ và 4,1 tạ/ha (7.8%) khi giảm 60% lượng nước tưới ở giai đoạn làm đòng. Đây là những thông tin, kết quả có giá trị, có thể được sử dụng trong việc xây dựng các kịch bản cấp nước, từ đó đảm bảo việc phân bổ nguồn nước một cách công bằng, hợp lý, thích ứng với biến đổi khí hậu cho các đối tượng sử dụng nước khác nhau trong hệ thống thủy lợi.

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