Bàn về một số phương pháp lượng hóa rủi ro tỷ giá

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Thông tin xuất bản: Tạp chí Khoa học và Đào tạo Ngân hàng (Tên mới: Tạp chí Kinh tế - Luật và Ngân hàng), 2023

Mô tả vật lý: tr.35-44

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Thêm vào giỏ Liên kết toàn văn

Exchange rate is the price of one currency expressed in terms of another currency. The fluctuationof the exchange rate depends on both domestic factors and foreign factors, in which changes in interest ratepolicies of central banks become a factor that causes exchange rates to fluctuate rapidly, significantly, andunpredictably. From the beginning of 2022 up to now, inflation has been exploded all over the world, includingthe US, EU and developed countries, forcing central banks to apply tight monetary policies by raising interestrates. During the period from the beginning of 2022 until now, the US Federal Reserve (Fed) has raisedinterest rates 8 times with a very high frequency and great intensity, causing the USD to be appreciatedagainst most currencies, including VND. When the exchange rate fluctuates, it will affect almost all ofeconomic activities such as import-export activities, foreign investment, international trade competitiveness,and even businesses and consumers that do not generate receipts or payments in foreign currency.Therefore, the study of measurement of exchange rate risks has become increasingly important from theperspectives of both theory and practice.Tỷ giá hối đoái là giá cả của một đồng tiền được biểu thị thông quađồng tiền khác. Sự biến động của tỷ giá vừa phụ thuộc vào yếu tố trong nước,vừa phụ thuộc vào yếu tố nước ngoài, trong đó thay đổi trong chính sách lãisuất của các ngân hàng trung ương trở thành nhân tố khiến cho tỷ giá biếnđộng nhanh, mạnh và khó lường. Từ đầu năm 2022 đến nay, lạm phát đã bùngphát trên toàn Thế giới, kể cả Mỹ, khối EU và các nước phát triển, buộc cácngân hàng trung ương phải áp dụng chính sách tiền tệ thắt chặt bằng cáchtăng lãi suất điều hành. Chỉ tính từ đầu năm 2022 đến nay, Cục dự trữ liên bangMỹ (Fed) đã tăng lãi suất 8 lần với tần suất và cường độ rất mạnh, khiến chođồng USD lên giá với hầu hết các đồng tiền, trong đó có VND. Khi tỷ giá biếnđộng sẽ tác động đến hầu hết các lĩnh vực kinh tế như hoạt động xuất nhập khẩu, đầu tư nước ngoài, sức cạnh tranh thương mại quốc tế, và ngay cả cácdoanh nghiệp và người tiêu dùng không phát sinh các khoản thu và chi bằngngoại tệ. Bài viết này tập trung vào một số phương pháp lượng hóa rủi ro tỷ giá,trên cơ sở đó, các doanh nghiệp định hướng các chiến lược phòng ngừa rủi rotỷ giá một cách hiệu quả.

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