The process of urbanization and industrialization in Nam Dinh province’s 10 districts and cities has led to many significant rivers being used for various purposes such as livestock farming, aquaculture, supplying water for clean water stations, and receiving wastewater, causing many river systems in the province to be altered, leading to the risk of imbalance and reduced self-purification and self-regeneration capacity of water sources in these rivers. This has increased the risk of water pollution and reduced the quality of surface water, resulting in a shortage of clean water for the daily lives of people in the province. The article has studied the application of the MIKE11-ECOLab model and correlation analysis method to assess the current situation of the wastewater receiving capacity of the central river system in Nam Dinh province. At the same time, it also analyzes and predicts the wastewater receiving capacity of the central river system in the province according to the trend of socio-economic development.