Thiết lập một thuật toán dự báo sương mù cho khu vực sân bay Quốc tế Nội Bài

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Tác giả: Nam Bình Hoàng, Thị Việt Hà Lê, Thu Phương Trần

Ngôn ngữ: Vie

Ký hiệu phân loại: 510 Mathematics

Thông tin xuất bản: Khoa học Giao thông vận tải 2021

Mô tả vật lý: 342-355

Bộ sưu tập: Metadata

ID: 392499

Thêm vào giỏ Liên kết toàn văn

Hiện tượng mù và sương mù là sản phẩm ngưng kết hơi nước trong lớp không khí sát mặt đất làm giảm tầm nhìn ngang xuống dưới 4000m (mù) hoặc 1000m (sương mù). Đây là hiện tượng thời tiết nguy hiểm có quy mô vừa và nhỏ, ảnh hưởng xấu đến nhiều lĩnh vực, đặc biệt là lĩnh vực hàng không. Nếu tầm nhìn ngang dưới giá trị khai thác tối thiểu, các chuyến bay phải hoãn lại việc cất cánh, hoặc bay chờ trong khoảng thời gian nhất định cho đến khi tầm nhìn đạt hoặc vượt ngưỡng khai thác tối thiểu để hạ cánh, hoặc quyết định chuyển sang sân bay dự bị. Do đó, công tác dự báo tầm nhìn ngang là rất cần thiết nhằm đảm bảo an toàn khai thác bay. Bài báo trình bày một thuật toán dự báo mù và sương mù trước 24 giờ cho khu vực sân bay quốc tế Nội Bài bằng phương pháp hồi quy và phân lớp. Thuật toán dự báo phụ thuộc các chỉ số FSI (Fog Stability Index), Fog Threat (Fog Potential), Fog Point (Fog formation temperature) và lớp nghịch nhiệt ở độ cao 1000 - 800mb tương ứng cao độ từ sát bề mặt đến độ cao khoảng 1500m. Thuật toán dự báo được thiết lập với hệ 2 phương trình hồi quy kết hợp một số điều kiện khác. Phân tích thống kê kết quả dự báo cho thấy mô hình có khả năng dự báo tốt hiện tượng có mù hoặc không mù nhưng chưa dự báo tốt hiện tượng sương mù., Tóm tắt tiếng anh, Mist or fog is a product of water vapor condensation in the air at or near Earth's surface limiting visibility, reducing visibility to less than 4,000 meters (mist) or 1,000 meters (fog). They are severe weather phenomenon and work in small or medium areas. Mist and fog conditions have potential negative impact on several economic activities, such as agriculture, marine, etc. and especially aviation operations. They are the limiting factor in aviation and can delay a flight or to cause the flight to divert to the planned destination airport. Therefore, the visibility forecasting is very important in aviation to ensure flight safety. This article presents an algorithm for fog and mist forecasting before 24 hours at Noibai International Airport, Hanoi, Vietnam by regression and classification method. Forecasting algorithm depends on the indexes FSI (Fog Stability Index), Fog Threat (Fog Potential), Fog Point (Fog formation temperature) and the thermal inversions layer at 1000 - 800 millibar level (sea level to near 1,500 meters). The forecasting model includes two regression equations combining other conditions. The results show that the forecasting model has good quality for the mist but not good for the fog phenomenon.

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